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Benjamin Graham pioneered the concept that all businesses have intrinsic value. The simple fact that stock prices fluctuate wildly while company revenues, asset values and cash flows remain stable over time proves the point that the market price of a company is separate from intrinsic value. One is driven by short term emotions, the other is driven by the long term realities of the business. My belief is that most businesses' future range of outcomes are so vast that any bet is a gamble, not an investment. For this reason, I put my research focus on businesses with a narrow range of future outcomes while using market volatility to get good entry/exit points. I vastly prefer companies with growing intrinsic value because even if I am wrong on the timing of the purchase, as time progresses intrinsic value will grow thus minimizing the risk of permanent loss of capital.
1. Maintain a list of predictable (narrow range of outcomes) companies with competitive advantages
2. Determine company valuation to a rational buyer as if we're buying 100% of the business
3. Patiently wait for a margin of safety before investing capital
4. Position sizing based on the risk of the business as well as expected returns
Valuation is determined using a method I developed to value nearly any public or private business relative to current interest rates without the need to forecast decades into the future. This avoids the pitfalls associated with discounted cash flow models where one must forecast cash flows in perpetuity, as well as their disregard to the current liquidation value (safety net) of a business. It is also unwise and very risky to use discounted cash flow models for valuing businesses without long term competitive advantages where a large portion of the valuation is based on cash flows 10 or more years into the future. This is more of a gamble than an investment.
"When Andrew Carnegie was in the steel business, he was in the steel business. But you, as an investor can rearrange your business empire on a moment's notice at practically no cost. That's a huge advantage, which people turn into a disadvantage" ~ Warren Buffett
|MODEL INCEPTION (01/10/2013)||AVG. ANNUAL RETURN||S&P TOTAL RETURN||Actions|
|5+ YRS (As of: 11/08/2018)||7.95%||12.69%||View Fund Stats|
|RETURN PERIOD (As Of: 10/31/2018)||AVG. ANNUAL RETURN||S&P TOTAL RETURN||ACHIEVEMENTS|
|Show Fund Strategy|
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